On March 24 th Arnfried Griesbaum followed an invitation by the China Central Party Schools Department of Party Construction to hold a lecture about “The German party system and the federal election in 2009”.

Among the participants were professors and students of the CPS. In his introductory speech Professor Wang Changjiang, head of the Department of Party Construction looked back on the lively exchange of ideas between the Hanns Seidel Foundation and his department. He stressed that this kind of event can offer great insights into the current party-political playing field of the Federal Republic of Germany.

In his presentation Mr. Griesbaum first discussed general functions of parties in a parliamentary system as well as the wide political spectrum of parties before further elaborating the current transition in the German party system and its impact on the federal elections in the autumn of 2009. He also focused on the various possible options in terms of government coalitions.

For a long time the CDU / CSU, FDP and SPD constituted the main body of parliamentary representation on the federal level, but with the entrance of the Green Party in the German Federal Parliament in 1983 this traditional structure was broken. In 1998 the first coalition without the participation of the conservative CDU / CSU or the liberal FDP was established on the federal level. In 2002 the Green Party and the SPD again managed to form the ruling coalition. In 2005 a grand coalition was formed by the CDU and the SPD. But this government coalition was born out of mere necessity and can be attributed to an ongoing transition in the German political landscape. The two major parties are strongly affected by the decreasing voter loyalty, especially by the loss of traditional core voters. Therefore the structural majority of the people's parties (CDU/CSU, SPD) that used to constitute the foundation of the government has become brittle after the reunification.

It is expected that the smaller parties FDP, the Green Party/Alliance ' 90 and The Left will perform well in 2009. The consolidation of the five-party system will thus continue. Recent polls support this trend. While the prospects for a conservative-liberal coalition have improved, there is no guarantee that a clear majority can be reached in the election. Due to the dwindling dominance of the former people's parties, the influence of the smaller parties on the process of forming coalitions is stronger than ever before. But only the future can show whether the existing system will eventually transform into a "fluid five-party system" (Oskar Niedermayer), which will require more political flexibility both from the two major parties and from the smaller parties.

As Mr. Griesbaum summarized, the situation for the traditional people's parties has become more difficult. This is partly due to the dissolution of traditional milieus and its impact on the voter's choices. The subsequent dwindling identification with the political parties amongst citizens as well as the political abstinence of parts of the population further aggravate this development. What makes it difficult is that despite this widespread skepticism regarding the effectiveness of policies, German citizens have very high expectations of the political decision makers. Overall the reactions and choices of voters have undoubtedly become more and more unpredictable. Election forecasts should therefore be treated with caution. As Mr. Griesbaum stated at the end of his report, a few minutes past 6pm (BST) on September 27 th , 2009 the outcome will be known.

In the ensuing discussion topics like the fragile voter loyalty, motives of non-voters and the impact of the global crisis on the German political landscape were further specified.